Financial Markets & Global Economics Analysis 📉 September 2022

Once in a while I write detailed market analysis posts from the algotrading perspective. I think it’s a good practice to tie algorithmic trading with the overall market picture to see where all of it is headed

First, let’s take a bird's-eye view on the market:

S&P 500 is at about 20% drawdown from all-time highs. NASDAQ recently got more than -5% in a day, which is the largest daily loss since March 2020. From the long-term investment perspective stocks seem like a good opportunity to buy. However, the market may go lower, since The Fed will increase the interest rate. The market already expects a 4% interest rate by the end of this year, and it may go even higher than that in 2023. Current market is down from the January highs mostly due to inflation not being taken seriously previously, and it may happen again

US Dollar index is at its 20-year highs. The market volatility is far beyond 5-year average (on a screenshot attached you can see daily ATR% volatility since 2017), which reflects pretty much everything happening on worldwide markets. These are investors fear and uncertainty being put to numbers

Crypto market widely anticipated «The Merge» (moving the main Ethereum network to PoS energy-efficient consensus algorithm instead of PoW), which technically worked flawlessly. However, a higher-than-anticipated inflation shifted the crypto market (as well as stock markets) to the downside. While my crypto systems worked out last movements virtually flawlessly, the whole market went down and continues to do that as of now. I still think that bitcoin and Ethereum are must-buy right now in the long run, although in the short run we may see some more downside movements

Despite pretty wild market activity most of my systems reached all-times highs recently:

Night Hunter Pro continues to reach all-time highs on my «Best Pairs» accounts, as well as even on «All Pairs» (which I don’t recommend to trade, although in the long run result is still positive)

Evening Scalper Pro reached new highs and got a lot of profit recently on all of my accounts:
Best Pairs
All Pairs

Waka Waka just reached 5500% made since the inception and continues to make profit

My crypto portfolio reached all-time highs, making 56% since May of this year with moderate risks. The YTD result (since January 2022) as of today is about 110% (my previous live track record, which was shut down by Pepperstone can be seen here)

However, all of that does not mean I have no losses and no losing periods. News Catcher Pro is the only system I have now that experienced losses recently. Current market is trending and volatile, which is the worst kind of market for mean-reversion day trading systems on major pairs. It happens rarely, but sometimes happens. And as many of you will surely agree we have very unusual times. So, for now it’s probably better to lay low with similar systems and either lower risks or wait until the market stabilizes

Now, a few questions I frequently got from buyers recently:

1. I got a loss recently on a trending movement during the night with the Night Hunter Pro (after the news about death of Queen Elizabeth II), but your account with MPR 15 does not have any losses during this news event. Should I use the MPR option on my accounts?

While with the MPR one has higher-probability entries with larger average winnings, it does not always mean avoiding losses. In some cases, it does, but not always. I recommend taking a good look on my «MPR 15» account and comparing it with the «Best Pairs» (which uses MPR of 0) to see whether this is a good option for you. Most people prefer more frequent trading (even if it means lower-probability entries). So, for most people using the MPR of 15, when there can be only about 10 trades per month is not a preferable option. The overall result in the long run should be pretty similar with both options (although any given month can be better with or without this option)

2. How to activate website EAs bought through the website?

Right now, you need to follow this instruction to do it. However, we with my website partner currently work on the private office, where all of it would be seen and worked with instantly

3. What are your general thoughts on crypto? Consider buying it?

Yes, I currently buy crypto. I think anything below $25k for bitcoin is a good buying opportunity in the long run. You will never be able to pick the exact bottom (unless you get really lucky) and most crypto-savvy people I know (including millionaires that got rich by systematically buying crypto) buy bitcoin and Ethereum right now. There are chances that crypto will go lower, but nobody can predict that with certainty.

Best wishes,